Stategies to counter the impacts of the drought

Writing in the Conversation Peter Johnston - a climate scientist and researcher at UCT  who explores the potential impacts of the drought on agriculture in the Western Cape. He draws on studies of Australia's Millenium drought and its social and economic impacts, observing the key difference between the two countries - South Africa's reliance on thousands of seasonal workers:

Seasonal workers in South Africa usually settle in the production area, often in informal settlements. Their earnings result from work during the harvest period which stretches from between one month to three. In many cases the earning period must sustain them for the rest of the year. Whole families are dependent on this income and any job losses can have a severe impact

Johnstone notes that:

So far the damage to trees and vines in the Cape has been limited. While the horticulture industry will suffer economic losses, the industry will recover, if not immediately, then over a few seasons if water for irrigation is restored by next September. It is, however, too soon to say what the long term impact will be in terms of soil quality, farmer confidence and water allocations.

It is clear that we need strategies to better manage and allocate water. However the impact of the drought on employment and the social impacts on thousands of families dependent on seasonal work for their income needs closer attention.

Wage increases in the agricultural sector: Views of organised agriculture and worker organisations

Wages are set to rise in the agricultural sector through phased increases:

• As from 1 March 2018 the agricultural sector will pay 15.39 per hour following an 8% increase in the minimum wage announced by the Minister of Labour
• From 1 May 2018 the national minimum wage of R20.00 per hour kicks in. However the agricultural sector has an initial special dispensation to pay R18/hour or 90% of the agreed minimum wage.
• Farmers who provide evidence that they cannot afford the increase can apply for a Section 50 variation which if granted remains valid for a year.

What will this mean for different actors in the sector?

AgriSA's perspective was recently spelt out by the Head of Labour and Development  Jahni de Villiers in an article published in the Huffington Post. In January De Villiers argued that:

• The agricultural sector has shed 109,000 jobs in 2017 and was 71,000 jobs down from the same quarter in 2016.
• The final research findings National Minimum Wage Commission published in 2016 indicates that 200 000 jobs were lost as a consequence of the first implementation of a minimu wage through the sectoral determination.
• Given the labour shedding response to the initial setting of minimum wages noted above, it is "a fair assumption" that further job lossses will follow a 17% increase in the minimum wage in 2018 and that layoffs or  will be aggravated by the severe drought in the Western Cape.
• AgriSA points to the need for "community development, including farmworker housing and farmworker enterprise development, and entrepreneurial development" However at the same time it notes that in the Western Cape only 8.5% of farmworkers have finished school and less than 1% have any tertiary education. 

Union responses remain critical although detailed statements are hard to find. No press statements have been possted on the Food and Allied Workers Union (FAWU) website since 28 July 2017. On their Facebook page FAWU reports that it has been campaigning for R5700/ month as a minimum wage and that "nobody can live on R20.00/ hour".

The Commercial, Stevedore, Agricultural and Allied Workers Union (CSAAWU) has a Twitter account which has been inactive since March 2015. The link to the organisation's website is dead. An article in Ground-Up reports CSAAWU's  response to the first phase wage increase:

“For CSAAWU the new recommendations from the Department are not only a slap in the face of farm workers, but an indication too that government has still not grasped the severity of the crisis of poverty facing rural workers. This new wage recommendation is a direct impoverishment of farm workers.”

CSAAWU is affiliated to the South African Federation of Trade Unions SAFTU which in December  2017 urged parliament to reject the National Minimum Wage Bill arguing that a minimum wage of 3500/month is pegged some R625 below the poverty line.

This rapid scan of responses show that representatives of the agricultural industry and worker organisations remain far apart. Organised agriculture has concerns about the afforability of wage increases particularly in a time of intense drought. Organised labour remains concerned about what constitutes a living wage which will lift workers out of poverty. The impact of wage increases on employment in the sector and the net impacts on poverty and vulnerability will need to be the focus of ongoing research.

Impacts of the drought on employment in Western Cape - 50 000 out of work soon?

In a recent article in Business Day Agri-Western Cape CEO Carl Opperman is quoted as stating that Western Cape farmers have recorded 14 billion in losses as a result of  back to back droughts. The article forecasts that "an estimated 50 000 people could be out of work soon". According to Opperman the employment losses would primarily be experienced  by seasonal workers who would  either be employed for fewer months, or who might not find work at all.

The drought has forced officials to impose strict water restrictions, and the agricultural sector, which is the largest consumer of water, has had its supply curtailed by between 60% and 87%, Opperman said:"Both the fruit and vegetable industries have been hard hit by the drought and water restrictions. In the Ceres area, for example, the limited water supply resulted in 50% less onions and 80% less potatoes being planted this season. This impacts on food production and wage losses of millions of rand for seasonal workers."

Photo: Ashraf Hendricks: Ground Up

Similar concerns were also reported in October 2017 by provincial CoGTA which highlighted the risk of "civil unrest" as an estimated R40 million rand in agricultural workers wages had been lost as farmers cut back on new planting and harvests fell. 

How will the drought impact on advancing a joint programme for decent work in the agricultural sector?  

Potentially the imapcts are enormous as producers and workers experience hard times. Putting such a programme in place requires that producers, workers organisations, state and civil society organisations remain in productive conversation to improve conditions on farms. The drought and projected layoffs risk placing these relationships under intense strain and raise the level of conflict risk in the sector.

Can the drought present an opportunity?

Despite the risks identified above these diificult times can also be regarded as an opportunity to intensify and deepen  multilateral conversations. Not everyone has subscribed to doomsday scenarios. Patrick Dowling highlights that:

"Realising that world‚ national and local leaders can do only so much‚ people have started working co-operatively and innovatively. There are domestic‚ street and faith-based responses‚ workplace plans and initiatives to support frail and vulnerable. As people work together‚ mesh talents and develop trust more dots are joined‚ giving issues of sustainability and co-operative solutions new meaning and practical application".

These initiatives need to integrated into the agricultural landscape. There are are many things this protracted drought can teach us. It will be important for producer bodies and the provincial department of agriculture to communicate clear and reliable information about the impacts of the drought and to project how these impacts could play out for different commodities and in particular localities.

A wide range of actors need this information so that joint responses can be developed,  solutions found, implemented and monitored. Hard times should provide the cue to open up spaces for dialogue and communciation rather than closing them down.

Towards decent work in agriculture

This new blog sets out to record, link up and amplify the impacts of social dialogue initiatives in the agricultural sector with aim of improving living and working conditions on farms and within the agricultural value chain. Our primary focus is on the Western Cape and the Cape Winelands District, but we will also feature examples from elsewhere in the country, the region and internationally.